The FY24 union budget, presented on 1st February 2023, pegged india’s fiscal deficit at 5.9% of GDP in FY24, after 6.4% in FY23, in line with the envisaged glide path to get to below 4.5% by FY26. However, the level of fiscal deficit is estimated to rise from Rs. 17.55 lakh crore in FY23 to Rs. 17.87 lakh crore in FY24 and net market borrowing, to fund this, is to rise from Rs. 11.1 lakh core to Rs. 11.8 lakh crore. Gross borrowing is therefore set to increase from Rs. 14.2 lakh crore in FY23 to Rs. 15.4 lakh crore in FY24.
On actual borrowing during FY23, G-sec didn’t have any major suprises, t-bill was revised higher by Rs. 50,000cr after the union budget (done through higher amounts in March auctions) and states’ SDLs (State Development Loans) undershot calendar amount as it did in FY22. India’s FY24 borrowing calendars for central government dated securities (H1) and t-bills (Q1) were released in this context. Below are the key takeaways, quarterly and half-yearly comparisons.
For G-sec borrowing, we note:
1) Gross borrowing in FY24 - H1 is Rs. 8.88 lakh crore, FY24BE is Rs. 15.43 lakh crore & implied H2 is Rs. 6.55 lakh crore.
2) Net borrowing in FY24 - H1 is Rs. 7.52 lakh crore, FY24BE is Rs. 11.81 lakh crore & implied H2 is Rs. 4.29 lakh crore.
3) Share of H1 and H2 gross borrowing in full year - 58% in H1 and 42% in H2 vs. 56% in H1 and 44% in H2 of FY23.
4) Share of H1 and H2 net borrowing in full year - 64% in H1 and 36% in H2 vs. 51% in H1 and 49% in H2 of FY23. Share of net borrowing in H1 FY24 is higher (vs. H1 FY23) because share of redemption is lower.
5) Note - In the FY24 union budget, total G-sec redemption for FY24 was reduced by Rs. 78,104cr for ‘net recovery from GST compensation fund’. Redemption numbers above (Figure 1) for H1 and H2 of FY24 have been adjusted accordingly (Rs. 23,000cr for H1 and Rs. 55,104cr for H2).
For t-bill borrowing (only competitive bids), we note:
1) Gross borrowing was Rs. 14.1 lakh crore in FY23 (vs. RS. 13.4 lakh crore in FY22) and net Rs. 89,000cr in FY23 (vs. Rs. 23,000cr in FY22). The major contributor to higher net borrowing in FY23 was 364d t-bills (+Rs. 10,000cr in FY23 vs. -Rs. 55,000cr in FY22). The % shares of 91-d, 182-d and 364-d t-bills in full year gross borrowing was not very different from that in FY22.
2) Gross Q1 FY24 t-bill borrowing as per calendar is Rs. 4.16 lakh crore vs. Rs. 4.31 lakh crore in Q1 FY23 and Rs. 4.68 lakh crore in Q1 FY22.
3) Within quarterly gross t-bill borrowing, % shares of 91-d, 182-d and 364-d t-bill borrowings are similar to Q1 FY23.
For states’ SDL borrowing, Q1 FY24 calendar for which is not yet out at the time of writing, we note:
1) Total FY23 gross borrowing was Rs. 7.58 lakh crore, with Q4 ending at Rs. 3 lakh crore (vs. calendar for Rs. 3.4 lakh crore) and thus an undershoot of Rs. 40,000cr. Every quarter since Q4 FY21 has witnessed an undershoot in borrowing vs. calendar. Total FY23 undershoot was Rs. 2.37 lakh crore (after Rs. 1.95 lakh crore in FY22) as states have been spending less, particularly on capex, compared to both budgeted numbers and actual revenue growth.
2) However, the undershoot in Q4 FY23 (Rs. 40,000cr) was lesser than that in Q3 (Rs. 72,000cr). Borrowing in recent SDL auctions have been higher than calendar. For e.g., states borrowed Rs. 38,000cr and Rs. 31,000cr lower than the respective calendar amounts in January and February but they borrowed Rs. 29,000cr more in March.
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