The MPC kept repo rate and stance unchanged in the policy review as was widely expected. Unlike recent previous policy reviews, and much to the relief of the market, there was lesser to read under the hood this time around as well. That said, there are still plenty of takeaways which we delve into below:
The table below provides RBI’s growth and inflation forecasts for the quarters ahead.
As can be seen from the table, the real GDP forecast for the current financial year has been raised by 50 bps to 7%. This reflects not just a stronger than expected Q2 but also some nudging up of growth for the rest of the year as well. RBI expects growth momentum to largely continue into the next year, largely reflecting domestic strengths even as the global outlook remains more two-sided. Somewhat surprisingly, despite an ongoing food shock leading to expectations of higher next two readings, RBI has left its near term CPI forecast unchanged. The addition to FY25 forecasts are largely as per market expectations.
The policy emphasis remains on an active disinflationary stance in pursuit of the 4% target sustainably. The primary impediments to this are in the form of persistent food shocks that have potential to derail inflationary expectations. However, the comfort thus far is that this isn’t as yet seen in inflation expectation surveys of households and core inflation remains well behaved. Additionally, a host of global commodity prices have cooled off and government supply measures remain proactive locally.
Of most relevance to the bond market was the lack of any commitment on future OMO bond sales. The Governor acknowledged that owing to factors like higher currency leakage, government cash balances, and RBI operations, system liquidity tightened significantly compared with what RBI had assessed in October and hence the need for OMOs hadn’t arisen yet. That said, RBI expects liquidity conditions to ease going forward on government spending. Also the commitment to nimbly manage liquidity remains, thereby not entirely taking away the threat of OMO sales. On our part we continue to see core liquidity surplus diminishing to INR 1 lakh crores or lower by the end of the financial year as the Jan – Mar quarter sees heavy leakage of currency, even considering that the y-o-y growth rate of this variable is quite muted. The calculation on core liquidity assumes no meaningful capital inflow led incremental liquidity creation. Thus we don’t see threat of any meaningful OMO sales, even as sporadic amounts cannot be entirely ruled out.
An important point to note also is that RBI seems happy with the pace at which its balance sheet has moderated as a percentage of GDP, from 28.6% in FY 21 to 21.6% currently. Thus apart from near term liquidity considerations as discussed above, there isn’t any need for active asset sale to manage balance sheet size for macro-economic reasons.
Takeaways
Even as repo rate has been on hold for most of the year, RBI has nevertheless re-commenced incremental tightening over the past few months. One, there has been a clear higher tolerance exhibited recently with overnight rates at MSF rather than at repo. This has been persistent enough for the market to now price the money market curve starting at 6.75% rather than at 6.5%. Two, while recent risk weight hike was to mitigate potential risk buildup in a certain section of credit, the effect will nevertheless be to make consumer leverage somewhat more expensive. Ceteris paribus, this further takes away the need to do anything more on monetary policy even as all options are still kept on the table as should be for any prudent central bank. Thus it is quite reasonable, in our view, to conclude that the rate cycle has peaked.
The next question is: given a robust assessment of FY25 GDP forecast and CPI not coming down to 4% sustainably even in that year, where is the scope for monetary easing? In answering this we draw inspiration (not actual quotes) from the Governor’s own response to a question in the post policy media conference. The world is a very uncertain place and hence one shouldn’t be too deterministic about the future. To elaborate further (our own), global growth will likely slow further going ahead as the US finally slows. While our domestic drivers are strong, government spending is unlikely to remain at the pace it has been so far. Consumer leverage will likely slow down as well. And if the world is a more uncertain place, then a broad based private capex cycle may also get pushed back. Thus it is possible that growth turns out to be slower than currently forecasted. Put another way, as with other parts of the world, India too may enter a period of below trend growth. This may open up space for some monetary easing.
A connected point is this: there is a view in the market that RBI will neutralize most of the bond inflow related to index inclusion with OMO sales of its own. However, it is probable that the monetary policy stance is less tight by then. Consequently, the tolerance for the ‘excess’ liquidity created may be greater by then thereby not leading to one to one matching with OMO sales. An additional point we have made before is also that annual currency leakage is of the order of INR equivalent of USD 30 billion. Given that the new financial year may start with relatively low levels of core liquidity, this may be an additional point to not try and neutralize all incoming flows via bond sales. A third point has been provided today by the Governor and referred to above: the central bank has no discomfort with the size of its balance sheet as a percentage of GDP. Thus it may be quite comfortable allowing its balance sheet size to rise with growth in GDP.
All told, we find bond valuations are attractive and the yield curve is reasonably positive sloping even at peak policy rates. Additionally there are 3 reasons why we think it is time for investors to seriously consider extending bond allocations: 1> A likely global cycle peak 2> India’s benign current account dynamics arguing for stable long term rates 3> Probable greater internationalization of interest in Indian bonds with the proximate trigger being the index inclusion.
In our view it is time to elongate portfolio maturities, especially considering very short end allocations done over the past year or so given high rate volatility and attractive bank deposit rates. One way to hedge upcoming reinvestment risks is to increase maturity on new investments being made today. We retain an overweight 14 year government bond stance in our actively managed bond and gilt funds. We also think that the recent widening of credit spreads will likely continue thereby making quality fixed income the most attractive on a risk adjusted basis.
Source: Bandhan MF Research
Disclaimer:
MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO MARKET RISKS, READ ALL SCHEME RELATED DOCUMENTS CAREFULLY.
The Disclosures of opinions/in house views/strategy incorporated herein is provided solely to enhance the transparency about the investment strategy / theme of the Scheme and should not be treated as endorsement of the views / opinions or as an investment advice. This document should not be construed as a research report or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. This document has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of Bandhan Mutual Fund (formerly known as IDFC Mutual Fund). The information/ views / opinions provided is for informative purpose only and may have ceased to be current by the time it may reach the recipient, which should be taken into account before interpreting this document. The recipient should note and understand that the information provided above may not contain all the material aspects relevant for making an investment decision and the security may or may not continue to form part of the scheme’s portfolio in future. Investors are advised to consult their own investment advisor before making any investment decision in light of their risk appetite, investment goals and horizon. The decision of the Investment Manager may not always be profitable; as such decisions are based on the prevailing market conditions and the understanding of the Investment Manager. Actual market movements may vary from the anticipated trends. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. Neither Bandhan Mutual Fund (formerly known as IDFC Mutual Fund)/ Bandhan Mutual Fund Trustee Limited (formerly IDFC AMC Trustee Company Limited) / Bandhan AMC Limited (formerly IDFC Asset Management Company Limited), its Directors or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, punitive special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
